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Thursday, September 12, 2013

Currency Forecast, September 12th 2013


Well, the YEN move was an easy one to see yesterday. EURJPY and USDJPY both moved lower by more than 50 pips, though I like to keep the position for now and expect the next move lower very soon. I also like to keep the short EURJPY position longer than the short USDJPY position, as I think the EURJPY will move lower again also with the EURUSD.
EURCHF could be interesting too very soon. Hungary will come with a decision about all the CHF-loan takers in Hungary. If they really would convert it to HUF, then the EURCHF should move much lower, because that would be about billions of CHF.
Today’s economic data out of the USA could be interesting too. The jobless claims will be released and a good number good lead to a stronger USD again, as this would mean that higher interest rates in the USA could become more and more likely.
As I am positioned quite big for now, I don’t want to increase the portfolio, but if you look for a quick profit, I would suggest to buy some USDCAD here around 1,0300. As the AUD moved lower by around 100 pips overnight, the CAD should lose worth too soon. (maybe 30 or 40 pips at least). And a profit of 30 or 40 pips is not that bad at all I think.
Good luck,

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